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The yuan & rupee's warning
EO
Eniola Oshati
Content associate
September 15, 2025 3 min read
Emerging market (EM) currencies are at the center of global financial conversations in 2025. With the US Federal Reserve signaling potential policy shifts and geopolitical pressures mounting, currencies like theChinese yuan (CNY)andIndian rupee (INR)are shaping the direction of broader EM FX markets. Their movements not only reflect domestic economic realities but also ripple across global supply chains, trade flows, and corporate balance sheets.
1. The Yuan’s Growing Influence
The yuan has shown signs ofgradual appreciation, suggesting that Beijing is more comfortable with a stronger currency.
- For every1% move in the yuan, currencies like the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit tend to follow.
- TheMSCI EM Currency Indexcorrelation with USD–CNY climbed to 0.59 in August 2025, according toBloomberg.
- Still, bearish bets persist due to weak Chinese retail and industrial output.
For businesses, the yuan is now aregional signalof EM currency health.
2. The Rupee’s Tightrope Walk
The rupee has touched record lows, pressured byU.S. tariffsandhigh importer demand for dollars.
TheReserve Bank of India (RBI)has responded with offshore NDF market interventions and spot trades. Forward premiums recently hit four-month highs, reflecting optimism about a softer dollar if the Fed cuts rates (Reuters).
Yet, without tariff clarity and consistent export receipts, the rupee’s recovery looks capped.
3. The Bigger EM Currency Picture
Beyond the yuan and rupee:
- Commodity currencieslike the Brazilian real and South African rand continue to benefit from stronger commodity cycles.
- Policy divergencematters—EMs with higher interest rate buffers attract more stable flows, while those with twin deficits (budget + current account) face sharper pressure.
- A softer US dollar outlook provides relief, but domestic fundamentals remain key to separating winners from laggards.
4. What This Means for Corporates & Traders
For businesses managing cross-border payments and exposure, EM currency volatility is both arisk and an opportunity. Some strategies include:
- Hedging via forwards and optionsto lock in predictable rates.
- Monitoring yuan signalsas an early indicator for broader EM shifts.
- Diversifying exposureacross EM pairs to avoid concentration risk.
- Leveraging fintech platformsfor real-time execution and multi-currency accounts.
Conclusion
The yuan and rupee are more than just two large EM currencies, they’re bellwethers for global FX. The Yuan’s modest resilience is reshaping correlations across Asia, while the rupee’s struggles highlight the challenges of navigating tariffs, capital flows, and dollar demand. For corporates, investors, and traders, the key is not just watching these currencies, butacting strategicallyto turn volatility into advantage.
Watch this video for more:Follow the Yuan. Watch the Rupee.
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